Notes and sources

most people would rather be in the casket than doing the eulogy

Jerry Seinfeld, standup routine, circa 1989. The joke references a 1973 Bruskin Associates survey, later popularised in The Book of Lists (New York: William Morrow, 1977), which ranked public speaking as Americans’ number-one fear.

29% of adults identified public speaking as a top anxiety trigger

Chapman University Survey of American Fears, Wave 9 (2023). news.chapman.edu/2024/10/01/what-scares-you/ (opens in a new tab)

fight-or-flight struggles to differentiate between physical and social threats

LeDoux, J. E., “Emotion Circuits in the Brain,” Annual Review of Neuroscience 23 (2000): 155–184. LeDoux’s dual-pathway model shows the lateral amygdala processes both through overlapping neural circuits.

social exclusion activates the same brain regions as physical pain

Naomi Eisenberger’s UCLA lab put people inside an fMRI scanner and had them play a ball-tossing game where they were gradually excluded. The dorsal anterior cingulate cortex - the same region that lights up during physical pain - fired in response. Eisenberger, N. I., Lieberman, M. D., and Williams, K. D., “Does Rejection Hurt?,” Science 302, no. 5643 (2003): 290–292.

speech-based challenges triggered stronger cortisol responses

Dickerson, S. S., and Kemeny, M. E., “Acute Stressors and Cortisol Responses,” Psychological Bulletin 130, no. 3 (2004): 355–391. Tasks combining uncontrollability and social-evaluative threat produced the largest cortisol changes and longest recovery times.

The lights were brighter than expected

Jarrett Allen after the Cavaliers’ first-round playoff series against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in 2023. The quote became a widely circulated meme on NBA social media.

speaking before an audience triggers the same fear circuits as dangling off a skyscraper

LeDoux, J. E., The Emotional Brain (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996). Note: more recent Northeastern University research (2024) in The Journal of Neuroscience suggests these fears may activate overlapping but distinct neural regions.

cortisol spikes even in anticipation of addressing a crowd

Kirschbaum, C., Pirke, K.-M., and Hellhammer, D. H., “The ‘Trier Social Stress Test’,” Neuropsychobiology 28 (1993): 76–81.

salivary cortisol levels jumped on the day of a class presentation

Preuss, D., et al., “The Stressed Student,” Stress 13, no. 3 (2010): 221–229. Thirty-four students showed substantially elevated cortisol before and after oral presentations vs. a control day.

As Mark Twain observed

Commonly attributed to Twain, though the earliest traceable appearance is a 1984 issue of Supervision magazine - proof that not everything the internet puts in Twain’s mouth actually came out of it. quoteinvestigator.com/2020/03/05/nervous/ (opens in a new tab)

the Trier Social Stress Test

Kirschbaum, C., et al., “The ‘Trier Social Stress Test’,” Neuropsychobiology 28 (1993): 76–81. The gold standard in psychophysiological stress research. You can see this unfold on an episode of the BBC documentary Secrets of the Sexes: Love (Episode 3, 2005). youtube.com/watch?v=aYI6lCeeT5g (opens in a new tab)

greater mastery of relevant skills displayed lower cortisol spikes

Dickerson, S. S., and Kemeny, M. E., “Acute Stressors and Cortisol Responses,” Psychological Bulletin 130, no. 3 (2004): 355–391. Also: Bollini, A. M., et al., “The Influence of Perceived Control and Locus of Control on the Cortisol and Subjective Responses to Stress,” Biological Psychology 67, no. 3 (2004): 245–260.

higher neuroticism scores experienced bigger cortisol spikes

Garcia-Banda, G., et al., “Neuroticism and Cortisol,” International Journal of Psychophysiology 91, no. 2 (2014): 132–138. Approximately 20% higher in high-neuroticism participants.

residual stress produced higher and faster cortisol responses

Dickerson, S. S., and Kemeny, M. E., “Acute Stressors and Cortisol Responses,” Psychological Bulletin 130, no. 3 (2004): 355–391. Also: Kirschbaum, C., and Hellhammer, D. H., “Salivary Cortisol in Psychoneuroendocrine Research,” Psychoneuroendocrinology 19, no. 4 (1994): 313–333.

a moderate cortisol bump can sharpen performance

Lupien, S. J., et al., “The Effects of Stress and Stress Hormones on Human Cognition,” Brain and Cognition 65, no. 3 (2007): 209–237. The inverted-U relationship follows the Yerkes-Dodson Law.

his father had shot my brother on Father’s Day

Mostert has spoken publicly about the family trauma. His father shot his younger brother four times while Mostert was competing at the NCAA national championships. nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/raheem-… (opens in a new tab)

only 12% of surfers are African American

Surf Industry Members Association (SIMA) Diversity in Surfing Report (2024). African American and Black surfers comprise approximately 11–13% of U.S. surfers, with the fastest growth rate among all demographics. surfindustry.org/pages/diversity-in-surfing-report (opens in a new tab)

employees who feel they can’t be authentic are 2.5 times more likely to feel emotionally drained

SHRM, “Employee Mental Health in 2024 Research Series” (May 2024). Survey of 1,405 U.S. employees. shrm.org/topics-tools/news/inclusion-diversity/burnout-sh… (opens in a new tab)

emotional suppressors had a 35% greater risk of dying

Chapman, B. P., et al., “Emotion Suppression and Mortality Risk over a 12-Year Follow-Up,” Journal of Psychosomatic Research 75, no. 4 (2013): 381–385. Over 700 Americans. 47% greater risk from heart disease, 70% greater risk from cancer.

David Goggins’ Can’t Hurt Me

If you haven’t read Goggins’ Can’t Hurt Me (Lioncrest Publishing, 2018), you should. Just know that the approach it champions is only one slice of the pie.

Reivich and her colleagues at Penn studying kids between nine and fourteen

Brunwasser, S. M., Gillham, J. E., and Kim, E. S., “A Meta-Analytic Review of the Penn Resiliency Program’s Effect on Depressive Symptoms,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 77, no. 6 (2009): 1042–1054.

more than twenty controlled studies followed

In 2009 Brunwasser, Gillham, and Kim at Penn published a meta-analytic review confirming significant reductions in depressive symptoms across racial and ethnic backgrounds, with effects persisting for years. “A Meta-Analytic Review of the Penn Resiliency Program’s Effect on Depressive Symptoms,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 77, no. 6 (2009): 1042–1054.

college freshmen, targeting the most pessimistic of their class

Seligman, M. E. P., Schulman, P., and Tryon, A. M., “Group Prevention of Depression and Anxiety Symptoms,” Behaviour Research and Therapy 45, no. 6 (2007): 1111–1126. Control group: 32% moderate-to-severe depression; workshop group: 22%.

soldier suicides had soared around 2008

Black, S. A., et al., “Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Suicides of Army Soldiers 2001–2009,” Military Psychology 23, no. 4 (2011): 433–451. The rate exceeded the civilian rate for the first time.

the largest-scale resilience training ever attempted

Reivich, K. J., et al., “Master Resilience Training in the U.S. Army,” American Psychologist 66, no. 1 (2011): 25–34. Over 55,000 certified trainers. 97% reported using the tools; 92% said they helped.

anxiety dropped by about a third

“Effects of Psychological Interventions on Anxiety in Athletes: A Meta-Analysis,” Frontiers in Psychology 16 (2025): 1621635. Blood pressure during competition fell. Effects held through 4, 6, even 9 months.

Thought-Consequence connection

A core component of the Penn Resilience Program, adapted from Aaron Beck’s cognitive therapy model and Albert Ellis’s Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy.

emotional granularity

Kashdan, T. B., Barrett, L. F., and McKnight, P. E., “Unpacking Emotion Differentiation,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 24, no. 1 (2015): 10–16.

Raheem takes the handoff, 220 yards and four touchdowns

NFC Championship Game, January 19, 2020. 49ers 37, Packers 20. Mostert’s 220 rushing yards set a new NFL postseason record for a conference championship. espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28519341/49ers-rb-raheem-mostert-… (opens in a new tab)

surgeons who practiced a three-breath reset

Arora, S., et al., “The Impact of Stress on Surgical Performance,” Surgery 147, no. 3 (2010): 318–330. Divided attention added ~30–40% to surgical task time.

Cody Simpson posted a webcam cover and woke up with a million views

His debut single “iYiYi” (featuring Flo Rida) earned gold certification in multiple countries. “La Da Dee” (2013) went platinum internationally.

a duet with Bieber, 147 million streams

“Home to Mama” (2014). Stream count as of time of writing.

two engineers in Napa connected a microphone and a loudspeaker

Peter L. Jensen and Edwin S. Pridham at 1606 F Street, Napa, California, 1911–1916. Their first public demonstration was December 24, 1915, at San Francisco City Hall. The audio feedback phenomenon was an unintended byproduct. napahistory.org/ask-a-librarian-magnavox-loudspeaker/ (opens in a new tab)

chronic ruminators under an EEG showed decreased activation

Ferdek, M. A., et al., “Depressive Rumination and the Emotional Control Circuit,” Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience 16, no. 6 (2016): 1099–1113.

Don’t think of a pink elephant

Wegner, D. M., et al., “Paradoxical Effects of Thought Suppression,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 53, no. 1 (1987): 5–13. The original study used “white bear” rather than “pink elephant,” but the principle is identical.

Adrian Wells and the Attention Training Technique

Wells, A., “Panic Disorder in Association with Relaxation Induced Anxiety,” Behavior Therapy 21, no. 3 (1990): 273–280. Relaxation increased panic attacks. ATT eliminated them.

the average ATT completer ended up in the 80th percentile

Knowles, M. M., et al., “A Systematic Review of Efficacy of the Attention Training Technique,” Journal of Clinical Psychology 72, no. 10 (2016): 999–1025. 10 studies, 295 participants.

effects were still holding at two years

Papageorgiou, C., and Wells, A., “Treatment of Recurrent Major Depression with Attention Training,” Cognitive and Behavioral Practice 7, no. 4 (2000): 407–413.

metacognitive

Adrian Wells developed metacognitive therapy (MCT). His book Metacognitive Therapy for Anxiety and Depression (Guilford Press, 2009) is the comprehensive reference.

seventy-three middle school students

Fergus, T. A., et al., “Reducing Test Anxiety in School Settings,” Behavior Therapy 50, no. 4 (2019): 803–816. Five sessions. Effects held at three weeks.

eighty-five medical school students got measurably faster

Barth, A.-L., Quirin, M., and Jäger, I., “Shifting Instead of Drifting,” Frontiers in Psychology 10 (2019). The first empirical evidence ATT improves attentional flexibility in non-clinical participants.

nearly three times more likely to delay gratification

Murray, J., et al., “The Attention Training Technique Improves Children’s Ability to Delay Gratification,” Behaviour Research and Therapy 104 (2018): 1–6.

significantly increased EEG activity in frontoparietal networks

Knowles, M. M., and Wells, A., “Single Dose of the Attention Training Technique Increases Resting Alpha and Beta-Oscillations,” Frontiers in Psychology 9 (2018): 1768. Thirty-six volunteers, same twelve-minute audio track.

Sports Illustrated Daily Cover feature

Sports Illustrated Daily Cover, October 2, 2020. The feature profiled the courtside exercise with TJ McConnell at AT&T Center in San Antonio. si.com/edge/2020/10/02/paddy-steinfort-mental-performance… (opens in a new tab)

Mark Manson’s The Subtle Art

If you haven’t read Manson’s The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck (HarperOne, 2016), the core idea is that choosing what to care about is the real skill. It pairs well with the attentional control work in this chapter.

Cody and Olympic preparation

Simpson competed at the 2024 Australian Swimming Trials for the Paris Olympics. Narrowly missed qualification in the 100m butterfly (51.79 vs. the required 51.17). He’s since returned to music.

Maria Konnikova

Konnikova holds a PhD in psychology from Columbia (2013). Her doctoral research under Walter Mischel examined risky financial decision-making. Her book The Biggest Bluff (Penguin Press, 2020) is the full story of how she went from never having played poker to competing professionally.

Dimitar Danchev

Won the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure Main Event in 2014 for $1.4 million. Konnikova’s own hand analysis is on Greenwood, S., “POTD #47,” Punt of the Day (Substack). puntoftheday.com/p/potd-47-analyzing-an-ept-monte-carlo (opens in a new tab)

Monte Carlo simulation

Named after the Monte Carlo Casino. Developed in the 1940s by Stanislaw Ulam and John von Neumann during the Manhattan Project, using repeated random sampling to estimate mathematical functions too complex for analytical solutions.

the brain runs on Bayesian thinking

Tom Griffiths’ lab at Princeton (now Berkeley) showed that human cognition maps surprisingly well onto Bayesian statistical models - we update beliefs based on evidence more rationally than we think. Griffiths, T. L., et al., “Probabilistic Models of Cognition,” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 14, no. 8 (2010): 357–364.

Preston Cline and Mission Critical Teams

Preston’s seminal work that has been the foundation of so much incredible work with the world’s 0.0001% was his PhD thesis dissertation, which he completed at the University of Pennsylvania. Cline, P. B., “Mission Critical Teams” (doctoral dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 2017). repository.upenn.edu/dissertations/AAI10275988/ (opens in a new tab)

Small (4–12) integrated teams of indigenously trained experts

Preston’s very specific, well-worn definition for what it means to be a member of a Mission Critical Team. If it resonates with you (like it did for me) or even just intrigues you, more of his subsequent work as well as the rest of the MCT community can be found at missioncti.com/ (opens in a new tab)

three hundred seconds of oxygen in your brain

The figure refers to the approximate duration of useful consciousness following complete loss of cerebral blood flow. Standard in aviation and military medicine. my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/6025-cerebral-hypoxia (opens in a new tab)

PEAK conditions

Original framework, adapted from Cline’s Mission Critical Teams research. Particular Demands, Emergent Problems, Against the Clock, Known Risks.

decision-making deteriorates under uncertainty

Grant Shields at UC Davis pooled 88 studies into a meta-analysis of what acute stress does to executive function - working memory, inhibition, and cognitive flexibility all took a hit. Shields, G. S., et al., “The Effects of Acute Stress on Core Executive Functions: A Meta-Analysis,” Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews 68 (2016): 651–668. Also: Starcke, K., and Brand, M., “Stress and Decision Making,” Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences 14 (2017): 33–39.

cortisol impairs the clearance of norepinephrine

Arnsten, A. F. T., “Stress Signalling Pathways That Impair Prefrontal Cortex Structure and Function,” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 10, no. 6 (2009): 410–422.

53 recovering heroin addicts given clonidine

Zhang, X.-L., et al., “Clonidine Improved Laboratory-Measured Decision-Making Performance in Abstinent Heroin Addicts,” PLoS ONE 7, no. 1 (2012): e29084. A single dose tripled their Iowa Gambling Task scores, surpassing healthy controls.

26% chance you’ll face all four PEAK conditions at once

Author’s calculation using the complement rule of binomial probability. Seven days climbs to 88%. Ten days hits 95%.

Chatham House Rules

Participants are free to use information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker may be revealed. Originated at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, 1927.

Tilt

A poker term for the state of emotional frustration that leads to suboptimal play. Aligns with the neuroscience of stress-impaired prefrontal cortex function in Arnsten (2009).

Expected Value

A fundamental concept in probability theory representing the average outcome of a decision repeated many times. In poker, “positive EV” means making decisions that are profitable long-term, regardless of short-term variance.

the average knowledge worker switches tasks every three minutes

Mark, G., et al., “No Task Left Behind?,” CHI ’05 (New York: ACM, 2005). Every 3 minutes and 5 seconds on average. dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/985692.985707 (opens in a new tab)

mental contrasting with implementation intentions

Peter Gollwitzer at NYU published the original implementation intentions paper in 1999 and it spawned an entire subfield on “if-then” planning. Gollwitzer, P. M., “Implementation Intentions: Strong Effects of Simple Plans,” American Psychologist 54, no. 7 (1999): 493–503. Also: Oettingen, G., and Gollwitzer, P. M., “Strategies of Setting and Implementing Goals,” in Social Psychological Foundations of Clinical Psychology (Guilford Press, 2010).

183 stroke survivors

Marquardt’s team tested MCII on stroke patients relearning physical movement - a population where motivation and follow-through are literally life-altering. Marquardt, M. K., et al., “Mental Contrasting With Implementation Intentions Improves Physical Activity and Weight Loss,” Rehabilitation Psychology 62, no. 4 (2017): 580–590.

fifty-eight women in a business education program

Oettingen, G., et al., “Self-Regulation of Time Management,” European Journal of Social Psychology 45, no. 2 (2015): 218–229.

early-career software engineers experienced more flow

A 2024 German study applied mental contrasting to software engineers and found it boosted flow states during coding sprints - one of the first tests of MCII in a tech workplace. Bartholomeyczik, K., et al., “Using Mental Contrasting to Promote Flow Experiences at Work,” Computers in Human Behavior Reports 16 (2024): 100488.

feedforward, 5.1% higher in performance ratings

Budworth, M.-H., et al., “Looking Forward to Performance Improvement,” Human Resource Management 54, no. 1 (2015): 45–54. 145 employees.

call centre workers who reflected for 15 minutes

Di Stefano, G., et al., “Making Experience Count,” Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 14-093 (2016). Workers at Wipro in India performed 22.8% better on final assessments. hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=63487 (opens in a new tab)

Agile teams and a 250% quality improvement

Broadcom Software, “The Impact of Agile. Quantified.” (2022). broadcom.com/rally (opens in a new tab)

feedforward got 32% more students across the finish line

Saeed, N., and Mohamedali, F., “A Study to Evaluate Students’ Performance Based on Feedforward Teaching,” Education Sciences 12, no. 1 (2022): 56. Pass rate: 92% vs. 60%.

future-oriented states improved reaction times

Weiland, B. J., et al., “Relationship Between Impulsivity, Prefrontal Anticipatory Activation, and Striatal Dopamine Release,” Psychiatry Research: Neuroimaging 223, no. 3 (2014): 244–252. Reaction times improved from 227ms to 202ms.

Boeing’s Model 299

Atul Gawande tells this story brilliantly in The Checklist Manifesto (Metropolitan Books, 2009). The prototype crashed at Wright Field on October 30, 1935. Two of five crew died. The resulting preflight checklist produced 1.8 million miles without a major incident.

a checklist for central line procedures cut ICU infections by two-thirds

Pronovost, P., et al., “An Intervention to Decrease Catheter-Related Bloodstream Infections,” New England Journal of Medicine 355, no. 26 (2006): 2725–2732. 103 ICUs, 67 Michigan hospitals. An estimated 1,500 lives saved.

the WHO’s surgical safety checklist

Haynes, A. B., et al., “A Surgical Safety Checklist to Reduce Morbidity and Mortality,” New England Journal of Medicine 360, no. 5 (2009): 491–499. Eight hospitals, eight countries. Complications fell 36%, deaths fell 47%.